State of the Big Three: 2018

As we settle comfortably into 2019, I think it's becoming more and more apparent that we're close to what would be the end of a typical console generation. Because of the unusual nature of this particular cycle, the advancement of certain technologies, and the individual directions of each of the big three, this may very well be the last categorically conventional generation we'll experience. Still, the decisions made in the lead up and the current circumstances of the industry aren't made any less notable by that potential shift.

This write-up reflects where I see Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft standing, what I think of their current place in the market, and how well they've done throughout the last year. 

Microsoft

While Nintendo doesn't actively plan or design to compete against its fellows, it's Microsoft that seems like the Odd one out in terms of their strategies and goals.

Much like the preceding year, there's little to speak of in the way of software coming from Microsoft with only three titles published by Xbox Game Studios in Forza Horizon 4, Sea of Thieves, and State of Decay 2. Of those titles, only Forza was critically well received. This makes 2018 the most meager year for new releases from Microsoft, and, for the primary demographic looking at the Xbox brand and hardware, that's not an attractive sales pitch.

The delivery of software on both the PC and the Xbox also continues to dampen thing. Though there's broader market potential in providing software across more than one platform, Microsoft has moved farther and farther away from establishing a solid value proposition with regards to their dedicated consoles. It seems as though they want to act in service of the broader Microsoft eco-system, but I thoroughly believe that, even with all of the frills and value, spreading all their offerings across PC and Xbox is an unbalanced path. Without aggressively pushing their dedicated gaming consoles, Microsoft is simply moving to hold themselves up on both of their pillars without maintaining and reinforcing the one that made them a player in the space to begin with. I think that'll bite them more and more in the hardware market among enthusiasts as time goes on if things don't change.

Of course, these concerns don't come from a perspective of Microsoft not caring about their hardware at all. Certain decisions indicate that that is still a consideration. 

Attempting to undercut with the Xbox One S and entice the high-end enthusiast with the Xbox One X make for smart moves from Microsoft through the generation. Unconventional avenues with regard to purchase of their hardware through things like Xbox All-Access, which allows consumers to expense the hardware and service through a monthly installment plan, also sit well as a thoughtful decision. Even so, these things aren't enough to overcome the realities of their software deficit, and the fact that Xbox Live is no longer dominant means that even that can't be used to sway over potential buyers from pursuing competing hardware or sticking to PC where possible.

This is all to say that it's become clear that, over the last few years, Xbox as a service has taken enough of a priority to make Xbox consoles a supporting aspect of their efforts.

Things aren't all dour, however.

Backward compatibility efforts have been extensive and seen the addition of hundreds of supported titles for enhanced performance, preserving and improving first and third party experiences to allow those interested to enjoy going back and indulging in their library from generations past. Though only valuable to a niche, it is a definite positive. The Xbox Adaptive Controller also launched this year, which acts as a commendable means of providing accessibility to those with disabilities and inviting more folks into the gaming space that might otherwise have seen the endeavor as out of reach. Additionally, Microsoft purchased seven established studios to add to their first party roster, which represents an exceptional gesture for their forward looking commitment to developing compelling software, something that's necessary regardless of the direction they pursue with the Xbox brand.

With regards to services, Game Pass seems to represent fairly good value to those who enjoy playing games broadly and without heavy attachment to the idea of ownership. I do wonder how the service is sustainable, however.

Overall, it's been a very meager year with a number of positive steps for the future from Microsoft. They definitely win on the 'pro-consumer' front of things, but their lack of software makes them an unquestionably distant third in regards to performance and value when considering the year on its own. I feel that their decisions are symptomatic of a goal that encompasses promotion and growth of Xbox as a service platform, if not Microsoft as a provider in whole, but we'll see where that ends up taking them in the next few years.

Nintendo

Up and coming with the Switch, Nintendo's seen an explosive start with the hardware's first year on the market, and sales have shown few signs of slowing down since. After a weak generation with the Wii U, their current pace reflects a notable return to form.

Looking at this last year in particular, Nintendo have released a decent catalog of games, though a little less high-profile than Year 1 in regards to enthusiast market perception; while a number of new games have been brought to the table, a similar amount of enhanced ports from the Wii U also made up Nintendo’s published selection. 

That's where contention comes in.

The ports are valuable in filling the sparser periods of the year and keeping momentum going while new software is developed. Additionally, the lower install base of the Wii U means that these games are essentially new to a large portion of Switch owners. Still, It's worth recognizing that there are folks who aren't happy about these, primarily folks who've bought a Wii U and feel that the value of their investment in it is being diminished or invalidated. This is especially frustrating for some of that crowd who have also bought a Switch, as it doesn't necessarily add value to that hardware for them either. It's an unfortunate, but interesting thing to consider.

Overall, however, 2018's first party software line up is respectable and varied, bringing with it some immensely heavy hitters towards the end of the year. Those being the Pokemon Let's Go pair of games in November, and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate in December.

For further context, the Pokemon Let's Go games managed to take the title of fastest selling Switch software since the hardware's launch, maintaining sales of 10 million units in just a month and a half on the market. Smash Ultimate quickly dethroned Pokemon, selling 12 million units in less than a month to claim that crown and also enjoy having the most successful exclusive software launch month in the history of gaming as a whole. Though the fiscal year isn't over, it's fair to say that the holiday season is where the Switch saw the majority of its sales thanks, in no small part, to the release of these particular games.

In addition to their more traditional offerings, Nintendo introduced their Labo series of software and projects, providing variety to their line-up that exemplifies the potential and novelty of the Switch while encouraging creativity. This opened up the hardware to a new part of the market while also providing a great deal of visibility in the educational space and toy market.

On the broader topic of the Nintendo Switch's ecosystem and support, I think that Nintendo's been setting things up very effectively and thoughtfully for third party developers. Even so, it seems probable that major releases won't generally be present on the hardware within its lifetime as it is. Though the hardware is the most conventional appealing since the Gamecube in spite of its novelties, its technical capability and architecture mean it isn't as convenient or scalable to developers putting together games for the PS4 and Xbox in most cases.

Still, support is very much broadly there from third parties big and small where reasonable, and the outlook is positive. Indies are especially notable, in many cases finding immense success that exceeds their launches on other hardware.

Outside of software on the Switch, Nintendo launched their online Service in September. It's a mixed bag to many, even at its low entry price. The long and the short of it is that the subscription doesn't improve online play as it was before becoming a paid service and the feature set provided is considered underwhelming by many.  The service was delayed for a long while, which I think ended up being to its detriment, oddly enough. Nintendo advertised the online functionality as a sort free trial until the service launched, but that story was lost to the question of why Nintendo NEEDED to delay the service if this was all there was to it. I think they missed an opportunity to make this a smooth transition in not reinforcing the nature of the situation, but we'll see how they bolster value moving forward. So far, aside from the library of NES games? There's not much of note.

Moving on, the 3DS received a few new releases, but support has generally slowed down. This is a space that I believe still represents value. The 'DS' novelty is still unique within this hardware line, and careful decision making can reasonably ensure that the dedicated handheld space still flourishes if Nintendo pursues it.

Dragalia Lost has been moderately successful, but I don't know that it represents a significant step in Nintendo's pursuit of mobile as a platform. That's all that seems to have been worth noting within that market. 

Overall, it’s been a clearly positive year for Nintendo. They've got a few things to iron out with their online offerings, and the future of the 3DS needs some clarification, but the Switch is on track to be a success that rivals the Wii. Hopefully, we'll see a solid stream of software to help maintain the pace of its sales through 2019.

Sony

I don't need to analyze or justify much to say that Sony's the current market leader. They've boasted exceptional momentum, value, and mindshare throughout the entirety of the current console generation with middling lows and exceptional highs. As a result of these things, the Playstation 4 has recently achieved over 90 million units sold-through, meaning that it already comfortably sits among the top selling consoles of all time with some life left in it yet.

Let's look past that milestone and get into the specifics of this particular year.

A healthy number of exclusive games were released over the course of 2018, but it seems to have been a less dense line up than usual for Playstation. This alongside about half of those titles being PSVR exclusives made for a bit of a sparse feeling year. Even so, there were critically regarded titles in Astrobot, Detroit, God of War, and Spiderman, with the latter two being massive hits that broke sales records and maintained heavy media coverage throughout their release period and in game of the year considerations.

The PSVR focus is appreciable in helping maintain support for the platform through clear first-party commitment. This has value in a few contexts. The consumers of the headset would, of course, want their purchase validated with software to go along side it. The investment in more titles also means that VR design and best-practices are pushed forward through those games, allowing a library of reference for developers in the long-term and incentive for consumers now. If Sony believes that VR has a place in the future of their ecosystem, this is the way to go about nurturing it. I still believe that VR hasn't proved its mainstream value yet and that it's, at best, a niche experience in the gaming space that can easily fade into fad territory if not handled well. 

Further on the topic of software, Sony seems to be slowing down a bit with their line-up, opting for 'deep-dives' into their already announced games at e3 2018, announcing that they wouldn't host the PS Experience in December, and that they'd skip e3 in 2019 altogether. Of course, this seems so noticeable because of the aggressive, game-packed conferences in the preceding years setting a seemingly unsustainable standard of quantity. It makes sense that they've finally been easing their pace in most contexts. 

Thankfully for them, their current foundation is strong and has been established through well-received exclusives, exceptional third party support, and aggressive marketing strategy, meaning that a slowdown isn't likely very damaging now that their ecosystem is in place and thriving. On top of this, multiple highly anticipated heavy-hitters are still on the horizon, meaning that they have a reasonable buffer for what comes next thanks to Dreams, TLOU 2, Ghosts of Tsushima, Death Stranding, and Days Gone.

This is a good place to be in for Sony, as it allows them to route their first-party development efforts toward the push for a successful next generation launch in a year or two without having a bumpy transition or underwhelming start to the PS5, assuming that there is one in the conventional sense.

Speaking of bumpy, the dialogue behind cross-play took an interesting turn as Sony fought against connecting to competitor hardware with their own concerns and excuses. The reality is that there's little value for Playstation to allow folks with other consoles to play with their consumers as opposed to leveraging the already established player base to bring their friends into the fold. After a some time and a head-line here and there, Sony relented to allowing cross-play, albeit at their own pace.

Lastly, the PS Classic launched for the holiday and is the one wholly negative part of Sony's year. Though the physical design was nice, it seems more like a cash-grab than anything else due to the shoddy software back-end, the lack of optimization, the use of an open-source emulator, the price to content ratio, and the titles on offer outright, among various other things. This has been very quickly becoming a bargain bin item and has clearly been a big flop. There's still potential in the idea, but this was definitely NOT one of the highlights of the year.

Looking back, I'd say that 2018 was a decently good year for the Playstation brand outside of a few minor missteps. Only a few big first party games if you don't have PSVR, but they're some of the most wildly successful, well-received  releases in Playstation history. It looks like slow going moving forward for a little while, though.